That Prince CD Giveaway Allows The Mail on Sunday to Boast Its July Average Circulation Grew By Some 200,000 But In Reality The Net Gain Is Somewhere Between 0 and 31,000

Philip M. Stone August 14, 2007

The Prince CD giveaway did what the UK’s Mail On Sunday (MoS) wanted – it boosted its July average circulation numbers by some 4.43% over the same period a year ago and by 1.92% over June, but the full July numbers indicate there was very little if any glue from one week to another by giving away 2.8 million copies of Prince’s new CD, so will advertisers be fooled by the one-off numbers?

With Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC) official July numbers, the July 15 promotion saw the Planet Earth CD giveaway boost the MoS circulation that day to 2,800,846, an increase of 600,000. But the next week the newspaper appeared to lose all of those 600,000 additional buyers although the MoS says the week after numbers are about 31,000 higher than the week before the promotion.

Only the accountants will be able to tell whether the approximate £1.25 million ($2.5 million, €1.84 million) in license fees and promotion was really worth it. But what the MoS has gotten for its money, without any footnotes on the numbers, is that July showed its year-on-year circulation is now positive whereas for all the year it was negative, and that July was much better than June. Instead of an average circulation around 2.2 million it can now tell advertisers its average circulation is now 2.4 million.

But we really need to wait until the August figures are in for a true before and after monthly average comparison. Nevertheless, word is that Rupert Murdoch’s tabloid Sun – the largest UK circulation newspaper that currently has a 2.5% circulation loss year-on-year – is looking to do a similar CD promotion with an unreleased album from Madness so it can move its average numbers into the black for 2007.

Elsewhere in dissecting the ABC numbers, with many of the so-called quality newspapers aiming their web sites at the increasing US audience the Financial Times came in with print numbers showing that it now sells more copies in the US than it does in the UK. It even sells more in Continental Europe than it does in the UK.

In the UK in July it sold 124,675 of which only about 60% were actually at full price with the other 40% bulk sales, yet in the US its circulation is now 127,106, and in continental Europe it is 124,813. The newspaper’s problems in its own home market don’t seem to have gotten any better (but profits at the newspaper are well up this year over last year), whereas overseas the circulation numbers are continually improving. Just five years ago the FT had a global circulation above 500,000 but today that number is down a full 15% to 426,451.

One problem in its own home market is that other quality newspapers have greatly improved their own business sections, and with the FT imposing a 30% price hike last month more and more people may well say they can get the business news they need elsewhere.

And the Sunday Times still has not recovered lost circulation from its move last September to price its paper as the highest of any UK national newspaper at £2. The newspaper has raised its price to £1.80 in February and no one seemed to complain but the September increase was an increase too far and down went circulation by some 100,000.  The July figures show its circulation down some 10.67% year on year.

For all of that The Sunday Times is thought to still be very profitable; indeed it has been carrying financially its sister newspaper The Times for many years. Robert Thomson, The Times’ editor and pegged by many to be named by Rupert Murdoch to a very senior position on the Wall Street Journal -- perhaps publisher -- once the Dow Jones deal is closed, said last month that The Times would start making money next year, for the first time in modern history, based mainly on its better business coverage (that hurts the FT) and the business advertising that better editorial product has produced. The five-year loss for Times Newspapers is around £200 million which means really large losses for the daily newspaper offset somewhat by The Sunday Times.

And in the PM London scene Murdoch’s free thelondonpaper is still circulating around 100,000 more than Associated Newspaper’s free London Lite, while things are stabilizing if not actually getting a bit better at Associated’s paid-for Evening Standard. The Standard’s July numbers were down just 0.38%, meaning they are down 15.62% year on year, but its current 275,186 is still better than the 266,000 in March although these numbers are most likely affected by bulk sales. In July some 30% of the sales were bulk, and full price was being paid for only 193,913 copies nightly.

And the market was looking closely at how the Independent on Sunday would do. In June it relaunched by ditching the muti-section concept used so successfully by the Sunday Times and instead introduced a 96-page main section, a business insert, and a magazine. That produced a 17% June circulation increase, helped by a reduced £1 launch price. But how would July look? Answer:  Down 12% from those improved June numbers.

But if you want to know the true secret of increasing circulation then the Star (daily and Sunday) once again proved to the world that when it comes right down to it, sex still sells. Each day for a week the newspaper ran on page 1 a picture of one of the scantily clad housemates from the Big Brother TV show. Result during the week: Daily up 1.9% and Sunday up 6.5%.

What is a little distressing is that during the month there were some good UK local stories – half of England under flood water, aborted terrorist attacks in Glasgow and London  -- but it still took free CD’s or sexy  feature pictures to get print circulation to really move, and not hard news. Must be a message there somewhere.

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