Could It Be That Free Is Just Fine Until There Is A Big Breaking Story And Then We’ll Cough Up The Money To Buy The Better Journalism In A Paid-For Newspaper?

Philip M. Stone January 16, 2008

The UK is one of the world’s leading competitive newspaper markets with Londoners choosing between nine titles every weekday and 10 on Sunday, and the reputation of the so-called “red top” tabloids with the sex exposés, nude women and the like is known around the world.

But the “red-tops” -- so-called because of their red banners -- are in trouble. Their circulations have fallen precipitously over the years and while they are still doing far better than the so-called quality newspapers, questions are being asked whether the red-top sleaze model can survive well into the future.

What got a lot of tongues wagging were the December official audit numbers that saw the two leading circulation red tops both dip through their psychological barriers, and then The Financial Times made a big deal of a quote by one media analyst who thought that such a free-fall could only mean that one of those papers, probably the Sun, would eventually turn to the free model.

The Murdoch-owned Sun dipped below 3 million circulation for the first time in 33 years in December with official average circulation of 2,985,672, a 92,716 drop from November marking a substantial 3% one-month fall.. Eleven years ago its circulation was above 4 million, but then it was riding the crest of Princess Diana’s daily antics that so tragically came to an end a few months later. At The Daily Mirror the December  drop was through the 1.5 million barrier to 1,494,114 down  24,767 for a 1.6% slide  -- its circulation has not been that low since World War II.

Most pundits agree that December is a notoriously weak newspaper month -- the UK basically closes for two weeks over Christmas and its prime foreign vacation time or stay-at-home time with not too many stops at the local newsstand. So the likelihood is that these numbers will recover above those barriers again in January but the real question being asked is in which month will they fall below again, and this time for keeps?

Last March, The Sun, for instance, fell to 3,031,724 and that got alarm bells ringing at News International. It then achieved a four month circulation increase aided by a 20 pence paper sold in Scotland. But with circulation at 3,213,756 in September, the December numbers mean a whopping 7.1% fall in just three months.

And it’s not that The Sun hasn’t been investing heavily in trying to keep the numbers up. Since September it has been selling the 35 pence paper for 20 pence in London and its suburbs. That lower price has to hurt financially since 40% of its total circulation is from that area and at 15 pence a copy less the circulation revenue drop  has to be close to  £180,000 ($360,000, €255,000)  daily.

But don’t shed too many tears for Mr. Murdoch quite yet. The Sun is a prime example of that term, a newspaper cash-cow. Its profit is said to be more than £100 million ($200 million, €135 million) a year. It still has the country’s largest daily circulation and it could even take over the title of the country’s largest circulation including Sundays if its sister tabloid News of The World continues its downward spiral which saw it land at 3,167,435 in the December numbers. As a lad this writer remembers The News of The World’s circulation well above 5 million, not that it was allowable reading for the pre-teen!

That either the Sun or the Mirror, for all of their ills, would become “free” has to be thought highly unlikely. But the free newspapers have had a profound effect upon their circulation, and that comes from one who should know – Rupert Murdoch.

Comments he made some three years ago when discussing News International’s 2004 results should not be forgotten. He said that newspaper publishers need to devise strategies to limit the financial damage caused by free tabloids, that there was no doubt that as a direct result of the free tabloids that established paid-for titles were  losing circulation with added strains on profits, and part of the competing strategy could well be to produce one’s own free tabloids.

So he launched a free newspaper in a market he wasn’t in -- the London PM – and it was a little more than a year ago that the free thelondonpaper went up against Associated Newspaper’s paid-for Evening Standard. And Associated, to show its muscle, also launched its own free newspaper, London Lite. The result is that Murdoch’s paper has about a 100,000 circulation lead over London Lite, and the only reason the Evening Standard has half-way decent circulation of 284,000 is because it has greatly increased its bulk sales daily to around 100,000.

So what about the morning market? Again, the competitor is Associated Newspapers with its Metro. What has that done to The Sun? Murdoch believed then that The Sun had lost around 10% of its readers to Metro but that the majority of Metro readers never used to read a newspaper until “free” came along. His comment then was, “The trend for free papers is to break into a modest profit but, more seriously, to damage existing newspapers. We're watching it very keenly," Based on that, one had the feeling if he was going to  launch a free AM paper it will be a new creation and not the Sun.

What The Sun and The Daily Mirror learned during 2007 was that when they had really good stories, exclusives or blanket coverage of an event of great interest then their circulation rose – witness their coverage of the McCann kidnap story and the return by Iran of the UK sailors taken prisoner. When they have a big story money seems no object — they spend what it takes.

The problem is there are far more slow news days than there are good news days. The tabloids have never recovered from losing Princess Diana. Her picture every day on the front page guaranteed loyal readers. No one has taken her place.

And there seems to be a real trend that as the UK economy has improved over the years many of those “working class” readers who used to gravitate naturally to The Sun and Daily Mirror now consider themselves more mid-market and are opting for The Daily Mail – it basically held onto its circulation of around 2.3 million 2007 – or they read free newspapers such as Metro whose London edition in December had a circulation of 742, 291.  But on those days when those lost red top readers know from radio, television or the web that there is a particularly good story out there then those lost readers seem to return, willing to pay for that day’s paper because they recognize that you get basically what you pay for, and with the red tops when they blanket a story you know you are going to have all of it whereas with the free newspaper it may just be a few paragraphs.

What it all means is that the red tops cannot rely any more on DVD promotions, cheap holidays and the like to maintain their readership. What they need are good, hard-hitting stories every day –and many surveys seem to indicate the public prefers positive stories to those that always knock someone or something. On slow news days no-one pretends that is going to be easy (which is why editors get the big bucks!) , but there is where the journalistic spend needs to go – on so-called enterprise or exclusive stories – or unbeatable coverage of a story everyone has.

When it comes down to it, while the red tops are better known for sex and sleaze it will be their tradition, too, of old-fashioned journalism that will save the day.