Research Companies in Ad-land: Nielsen Says “NO,” Arbitron Says “OH,” TNS to Analyze

Michael Hedges March 9, 2006

Timed for maximum ad agency appeal, major audience and market research companies sent signals about media measurement. Ad-land luminaries were aghast: how dare these simple suppliers visualize a separate reality.

The big news from Arbitron and Nielsen – released hours before the 4A’s (American Association of Advertising Agencies) meeting in Orlando, Florida last week – disclosed no secrets. The joint venture to use Arbitron’s Personal People Meter (PPM) technology for Nielsen’s television ratings is dead. In fact, Nielsen kept Arbitron dangling about the deal while Nielsen continued to test the ad-land wind, itself not a pretty thought. Given sufficient time, as any pitchman knows, and there’s always a reason to say “no.”

“I couldn’t believe they were not going through with it,” said Universal McCann’s COO Jean Pool, quoted in Mediaweek. “Anything is better than what we’ve got. Single source is really important, and we’re way behind the rest of the world.” Ad-land has been jumping up and down for single source media measurement for decades and technology advances – not to forget zillions in Arbitron investment – have opened Pandora’s Box. Ms Pool’s “rest of the world” comment was, in the spirit of good advertising, a bit hyperbolic.

But Ms Pool, chairing this years 4A’s, managed to telegraph ad-lands next demand: commercial, not program, ratings. Two years ago ad-land prophesied the end of modern life (read: ad budgets) if the public skipped TV ads with TIVO and PVRs. As if blaming TV broadcasters for failure to compel viewers to sit through ad breaks, Ms Pool referred to the lack of audience figures of commercials as TV’s “dirty little secret.” Ad rates are set by program ratings, often projections, then revised after a program airs. As viewers choose (horror of horrors) to time-shift TV programs electronic measurement can rate a show up to seven days after broadcast.

Arbitron and Nielsen are not giving up on Project Apollo, a venture using PPM technology to track media usage with consumer behavior, a concept deeply engrained in ad-land. Combining TV ad exposure with purchase behavior has long been left to marketing professors, and the theories tend to support the idea that ad exposure may well add to the marketing experience but rarely causes a viewer to leave the couch and buy a car or can of paint.

The internet, however, is changing the pattern, somewhat. People are surfing the ‘net buying last minute airfare offers. (note: author just received email offering CHF 89 round trip to Stockholm...love Stockholm…busy this week…too cold.) And the relationship between ad exposure and purchase behavior can be tracked. The people paying for all those cool TV ads (often, but not always, referred to a “the client”) are asking ad agencies to explain how an email or internet offer can be immediately tracked to buying things and cheaper than TV. Inquiring minds want to know!

Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS) –  another research biggie – signaled yet another internet effect. Big market research customers (think: P&G) are inundated with data, they said, and are calling for more analysis. In other words, TNS can make more money selling executive summaries than tetrabytes of data, which be accumulated really cheap on the ‘net. “What we are looking to do is provide more analysis into areas like new product development or what part of the population will be impacted by an advertising campaign," said TNS CEO David Lowden, quoted in The Guardian.

Nielsen Media’s decision to bolt from this measurement venture with Arbitron may very well be another signal in the wind. “Our clients clearly want a 21st century solution that is accurate, affordable, and adaptable to all forms of video-based media,” said Nielsen Media CEO Susan Whiting, in the press release announcing a strategy that does not necessarily exclude PPM. “They have, in effect, told us to 'follow the video' as it moves to new platforms, including time-shifted systems, the Internet, cell phones and other mobile devices.” With technology leaping tall buildings in a single bound and providing robust systems to measure exposure to audio, can we measure what people see? Media people are talking more and more about “screen-time,” lumping together TV watching, internet surfing, game playing and whatever it is people do with mobile phones. Measuring “screen-time” might capture YOUNG PEOPLE, and it might envelope PRINT MEDIA. ftm suggests incorporating such a measurement device in very dark, wrap-around sunglasses.

“We recognize the appeal of a portable, single source measurement tool,” Whiting continued. “While it may offer considerable benefits for radio research, we believe that a one-size-fits-all measurement system is not the approach for a currency in today's complex television markets.”

So, single-source measurement might just be losing its allure, not that broadcasters have actually fallen for it, to screen enchantment, never far from ad-lands heart. ”Ratings are like the speedometer,” mused Initiative Vice President David Ernst, quoted in Mediaweek, ”but now we’re developing an instrument panel.”

All of this might actually be the best thing to happen to Arbitron and radio. After decades of servicing US radio broadcasters and gaining a very large measure of trust, specialization – right now – might well move the company and their expertise forward faster. Yes, CEO Steve Morris said “I’m disappointed.” And Wall Street gave Arbitron a one-day whipping. But long term, (in media-speak, that’s 2 quarters) serving the paying clients, the broadcasters, tends to overcome intermediary whim.

Meanwhile, Arbitron continues to chalk-up incremental wins with broadcasters and advertisers, often outside the US. This week’s press release featured expansion of the PPM sample for TV measurement in Quebec, Canada. Maybe that’s what Ms Pool was referring to.