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With More than 2 Billion Mobile Phone Users in the World Of Which 236 Million Use 3G, Can Advertisers Be Very Far Behind?

It’s already well understood that advertising money is flowing away from traditional media to more unconventional channels, and a survey by eMarketeer points out that the two tactics that advertisers want to experiment with this year over any other are video and the mobile phone.

And for good reason.  Take a look at just about any marketing report and it will tell you that mobile phone advertising revenues are expected to increase around 8-fold from today through 2010.

A report from Magna Global summed up the thinking going on in the advertising community:

“With 2 billion mobile subscribers around the world, 20% annual subscriber growth, new networks capable of distributing video, improving handset capabilities, and rapid turnover of the handsets themselves, mobile phones may become the most pervasive devices able to access video content on a global basis.

“With this footprint, we expect that advertising will ultimately play an important role in the mobile video world. The best opportunities to market to consumers in mobile environments will be through integrated mobile communications devices, and the industry will likely require ad-support to reach the widest possible audience.”

And the year does seem be one where content providers and advertisers are experimenting to find out what works and what doesn’t.

On the advertising side eMarketer senior analyst John Gauntt said “The challenge for marketers looking at mobile TV for the next two to three years is primarily one of learning about which mobile-native broadcast experiences consumers desire and the degree to which they are willing to accept marketing messages to subsidize or enhance this experience.”

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With Global Sales of Mobile Phones Set to Reach 1 Billion This Year, and 3G Carriers Fighting It Out To Launch Their TV Services First With World Cup Coverage, Is This The Year We Really Use the Phone for More Than Just to Say Hello?
Deals are beginning to be signed In Europe for mobile phone operators to enter the TV business in a big way. In the UK, Virgin Mobile has signed up for BT’s Movio system with the hope one of the five terrestrial TV stations on offer will have World Cup coverage. But Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile, a World Cup sponsor, is in talks with FIFA to see if it can show England games live, or at the very least highlights.

Will We Use Our Mobile Phones To Watch Enough Television To Make It A Viable Financial Proposition? Various UK trials and Tests Indicates the Answer is Yes, No, and Maybe
Since November Sky Television has provided more than 5 million live-TV streams in its Vodaphone 3G service, so there certainly is an interest in using mobile phones to watch some television. But in a just concluded trial by BT with Virgin Mobile users said they preferred listening to digital radio on their phones than watching TV and they were not wiling to pay as much as operators wanted. And in yet another trial, this one by O2, 78% of users said they would buy a TV service.

In Europe Mobile Phone Penetration is Approaching Saturation But, Like Japan, Users Are Mostly Interested In Communicating With One Another and Not Downloading Premium Services
The really good news is that mobile phones usage in Europe Is around 80% with the UK and Italy at saturation point. The bad news for media vendors and phone operators is that customers don’t seem very interested in the premium services on offer. What they really want their phones for are to, well, talk and communicate with one another.

If the Cell Phone Rings During Sex, Do You Answer It?
Anyone who has visited Italy knows how much the Italians love their cell phones.

Now On a Mobile Phone Near You: Visual Radio
If you’re in Finland Nokia’s new killer application puts pictures together with FM radio in a cellphone.

On the content side the football World Cup in Germany will be a major test for mobile operators and users. With such a small screen size the pictures have to be as sharp as possible, and tests will be conducted using Digital Multimedia Broadcast (DMB) and Digital Video Broadcasting Handheld (DVB-H) to see which can handle making a fast moving soccer ball look like a soccer ball on such a screen size.

The Beijing Olympics are just two years away. They are seen by many as the real launch pad for mobile video services, not the least in China itself..

Visiongain, a UK-based independent media company, has issued a new report analyzing mobile advertising and marketing through 2011. It says that mobile advertising in Europe and US last year equaled about $255 million, but will be $1 billion by 2009.

If the schedule by Visiongain proves true, then by the year 2007 advertisers will have figured out what works and doesn’t so that in 2008 advertising on the mobile becomes mainstream.

But it is not just the technical systems that need testing. JupiterResearch in the US says mobile’s video success is going to depend on the industry finding the right mix of premium content and the price people are willing to pay for that content.

JupiterResearch analyst David Schatsky warned that the uptake on mobile video programming will depend more on the business models and content offerings than on the technology. He warned that while consumers are interested in mobile video, they’re not going to pay large fees for mediocre content.

Various reports out there say there is a preference for paid content over ad-supported video (Starcom) , and vice-versa. (Points North Group). Nothing is really going to get decided until the various business models are tried out.

eMarketer believes that by 2009 some 530 million 3G subscribers globally will watch video on their phones, 121 million will pay for premium video services and watch them on their phones and 100 million will watch broadcast TV on their phones.

But there is still a lot of groundwork to be done. eMarketer’s John Gaunbt warned, “Marketers shouldn’t believe for a minute that either the mobile carriers or the content providers have cracked the business model, let alone the digital rights issues that will be crucial to migrate mobile TV from one market stage to the next.”

In urging advertisers to start conducting now their own research into what works on the mobile platform, Magna Global gave a hint of the treasures ahead. “With a potential audience in the billions, as infrastructure is deployed to meet advertisers’ needs, we believe this vast untapped market will ultimately emerge as one of the most important of the early 21st century.”



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