Listeners Jump The Track, Broadcasters Lean In

Michael Hedges February 6, 2020 Follow on Twitter

Media dynamics are typically defined by numbers from afar. For radio broadcasters, audience estimates support or refute working narratives with totals, comparisons, percentages and trends. For those supported by the media buyers this is life-blood. Dynamics within the studios can be different.

UK radio measurement cooperative RAJAR released this week (February 6) the final quarterly results (Q4) for 2019. UK radio watchers seemed surprised by parts, relieved by other parts, bemused by the rest. Topping the dataset is the eroding listener base, persons 15 years and older. Over the last seven quarters total reach has fallen 0.5% per quarter on average, about a million folks. Conventional wisdom, likely correct, holds that young people - however they might be defined - are tuning out. Some suggest Millennials have replaced radio wake-up with smart speaker devices.

After two consecutive quarters below 50% aggregate share, BBC Radio channels popped up to 51.0%, just slightly up from 50.9% year on year. BBC national channels rose, on aggregate, to 45.0% from 44.6%. The aggregate audience share for BBC local stations continues to deteriorate; 6.0% from 6.3%. Commercial radio listening share is also up; 48.6% from 46.5%. National commercial channels, always expanding through digital platforms, posted 22.0% aggregate share from 18.6%. Local commercial stations, cannibalized by the digital and branding magic, dropped, on aggregate, to 24.6% share from 27.9%. The share “gap” between BBC and commercial radio has risen to 2.4%. In reality, it is increasingly clear BBC and commercial radio are on separate tracks.

Nationally, BBC Radio 2 held the top spot with 17.0% share, seriously lower than 18.1% one year on. But, this was considerably higher than Q2 and Q3 (16.4% and 15.9%, respectively), suggesting an anomaly. News/talk BBC Radio 4, in second place, rose to 12.0% share from 11.2%, despite the retirement of high profile morning host John Humphries. Youth channel BBC Radio 1 took third place with 5.6% share, slightly off previous 5.7%. Commercial channel Heart placed 4th, 5.2% share, noticeably lower than 5.7% one year on when it was tied with Radio 1.

Legacy national channel Classic FM bounced to 5th with 4.1% share, best showing in more than a decade, up from 3.6% share year on year. Classic FM developed the classical music excerpt format in 1992. It has “substantially increased its younger audience,” said the press release. Perhaps related, BBC Radio 3 showed a share increase, 1.4% from 1.2%, best in three years. Radio 3 offers long form classical music works in addition to a variety of arts programming.

Beyond the national top five, commercial talk channel LBC rose to 10th to 2.6% share from 2.1% one year on. It is the best showing ever for the largely right-wing talker. Alternative music BBC 6Music moved into 12th place, 2.4% share from 2.1%. Virgin Radio, owned by publisher News UK, placed 18th. Other channels were either up a bit or down a bit.

London market results were similar, in some ways, but typically different. BBC Radio 4 remains top rated, jumping to 14.9% share from 13.7% year on year. BBC Radio 2, number two, also suffered in London; 11.5% share from 12.3%. LBC held third place, 6.2% share, up from 5.5%. London audience estimates for Classic FM appear to show a positive trend. The station moved into 4th place, 4.4% share from 3.8%. BBC Radio 3 was also up; 2.1% share from 1.8%. “Alexa, find Bach.” Magic London tied for 4th; 4.4% share up from 4.0% one year on.

There was significant motion outside the top 5, or 4 considering the tie. Heart London, largely indistinguishable from Magic, dropped to 3.6% share from 4.6%. BBC Radio 1 dropped to 3.2% share from 3.8%. And Smooth Radio fell to 2.3% share from 3.0%. The only gainers of note were Absolute Radio and the aforementioned BBC Radio 3.

See also in ftmKnowledge

Digital Transitions

Media's transition from analogue to digital has opened opportunities and unleashed challenges beyond the imagination. Media is connected and mobile yet fettered by old rules and new economics. Broadcasters and publishers borrow from the past while inventing whole new services. This ftm Knowledge file explores the changes. 88 pages PDF (March 2012)

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