Can’t See The Forest For The ICTs

Michael Hedges March 4, 2009

It’s worth repeating, cliché that it is, that new technologies have revolutionized everything. Stepping back from the great blur of change and disruption is a merciless exercise. In less than a generation – unheard of in world history – information and communication technologies have brought more, faster and, arguably, better to many.

A massive compilation of that change is contained in a policy document – Measuring the Information Society - by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), released this week. The figures are stunning and report worldwide development of information and communication technologies (ICT). Too, the report shows the implications for media producers and providers both in the developed and developing worlds. Yes, the digital divide between the richest and poorest regions remains but it, too, is changing.

The ubiquity of mobile phones and mobile technologies may be taken for granted in Western Europe and North America. We’ve heard the anecdotes of Finland’s per capita mobile phone ownership exceeding two, more than one for each ear. The ITU estimates that at the end of 2008 more than four billion people had mobile phone subscriptions, 61% of the world’s population. A decade ago mobile phone subscriptions trailed fixed line subscriptions by a third. Now, fixed line telephone subscriptions are falling and the penetration rate is more than three times less than mobile cellular subscriptions.

Mobile communications uptake has swung to developing regions, Africa in particular. Penetration in Europe far exceeds all other regions at 111 subscriptions per 100 persons. In Africa mobile penetration “has risen from just one in 50 people at the beginning of this century to over one fourth of the population today.” Nearly two-thirds of the world’s mobile cellular subscriptions came from Africa and Asia by the end of 2007.  

Internet penetration, particularly broadband, is taking a decidedly different trajectory. About one-quarter of the world has internet access, with significantly less in developing regions. Dial-up connections are being replaced in Europe and the Americas by fixed broadband, Europe leading by a leap. Fixed broadband internet access in developing regions suffers, in one sense, from lack of infrastructure investment. On the other hand, take up of broadband internet access via mobile cellular technologies in Africa and Asia is robust. 

The report carefully notes the haze in offering a concrete outlook for ICTs from the “profound global economic crisis.” Telecom operators, ICT manufacturers and service providers, it recognizes, are under financial pressure and may be “reluctant to follow through with costly network investments” and anything else that challenges profitability. Also unknown is the degree to which consumers spending patterns will change. “Depending on the importance they attach to their telecommunication and ICT services, they may, or may not, cut the cord, or give up their mobile cellular or broadband service.”

Much of the ITU report describes in great – and academically complete – detail its newly constructed ICT Development Index (IDI) through 154 countries are ranked. The three components of the IDI are ICT access, use and skill making it a robust indicator of both development and potential. (A full description and methodology for the IDI can be obtained from ITU).

The IDI rankings, for 2007 compared with 2002, are somewhat intuitive. Northern European countries rank at the top with African countries at the very bottom. Half of the top ten ranked countries are in Nordic Europe: Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Norway and Finland. Twelve of the top 20 are European. Six of the top 20 ranked countries are located in the Asia/Pacific region.

South Korea ranks second in the world, based on “intensity of use.” Mobile broadband is widely accessible and usage is high – the highest in the world. Not unsurprising, then, is the uptake of mobile TV in South Korea, which is also known as a primary developer of mobile technologies.

Traditional media producers and suppliers – and policy makers, in particular - continue to be mystified by the new communications technologies, the growth rate alone being the most significant change agent for media ever. Consumers have adopted and continue to adopt mobile cellular and broadband internet services. Present economics accepted, the ITU report says this – long-term – has yet to find an upward boundary.

Certainly the knowledge – let alone the understanding – that in short order two-thirds of the world’s population can be reached through mobile cellular excites both service suppliers and manufacturers. It is mass market beyond the wildest dreams of the marketing department. Anecdotal evidence suggests – but hardly confirms – a negative correlation between broadband usage and newspaper circulation. South Korea, in the analysis, may be the outlier yet more predictive. South Korea’s newspaper circulation seems unaffected yet free to air television could be disappearing.

It isn’t a joke. There are “unknown unknowns.” And these are yet early days.

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