Time Shifting And The Rule Of Television

Michael Hedges November 22, 2016 Follow on Twitter

Very few really believe television is going away anytime soon. Its place in the world is writ large in indelible ink. The future is shifting, thanks to technology. Demography - the counting of people - is even more inevitable. Be nice to the Millennials.

It comes around every year and with every arrival there’s a need to explain the reason it pops up. The United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) launched World TV Day twenty years ago designating November 21st as the red-letter day. Even then - pre-iPhone, pre-YouTube and pre-Netflix - critics and analysts were ready to write-off television as the next media dinosaur. Time to move on.

Well, TV is still here. And by most measures just as alluring as it’s been for more than half a century. Noting the auspicious occasion, public broadcasters association European Broadcasting Union (EBU) director general Ingrid Deltenre noted the “indispensable role in the functioning of democracies,” in a joint commemorative statement with commercial broadcasters association ACT and sales-house support group egta. (See full statement here)

Media experts in Poland added their views, all noting that change is coming or, more realistically, it’s already here. “A generation of children raised on television will not give up on this medium,” offered University of Warsaw media professor Maciej Mrozowski, quoted by wirtualnemedia.pl (November 21). “It’s part of the ritual. I’m talking about traditional, commercial TV adapted to the rhythm of the average family.” Polish Baby Boomers, defined in the accompanying research as 50 to 64 years of age, watched 5 hours and 53 minutes of TV per day in 2015 while Millennials, defined as 20 to 34 year olds, watched 2 hours and 52 minutes, according to Nielsen data.

“The (traditional) model will continue to function for 20 to 30 years,” he added. “The younger generation that rejects commercial TV, the post-TV generation so to speak, is not watching TV less just looking at it differently. For them TV is not distribution.”

“I am completely calm about the future of TV,” said longtime TV executive Piotr Radziszewski. “Of course, you cannot coax young people, almost fused to their mobile devices, to linear TV. But the internet is and will be an excellent compliment to TV.” Average time spent with TV in Poland has risen to 4 hours and 23 minutes in 2015 from 4 hours and 2 minutes in 2011, driven entirely by viewers 35 years and older.

All important to media buyers, habits of Millennials are studied in every conceivable way. The Young Adults Report of audience estimates from ten countries by Eurodata TV Worldwide, part of French measurement institute Médiamétrie, showed 18 to 34 year olds watching “less time in front of the television than the rest of the population. However, what is especially interesting is that they do not necessarily watch the same channels and programmes as other age groups and this is what singles them out.” This edition of the report was released in October.

These Millennials - referred to in the report as young adults - watch TV, on aggregate, a hour and a half per day less than the general population. And that decreased 5% year on year. They are watching reality TV and talent shows. They not necessarily watching a lot of news. They are time-shifting.

Most interesting, perhaps a little scary for TV broadcasters, Millennials are not watching the same channels as, well, older people. Entertainment channels MTV, VIVA, ZULU and Pro7 are favorites. The Eurodata report compiled data from Germany, Denmark, the UK, the US, Japan, Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Sweden. Pains were taken to point out wide disparities between countries.

Los Millennials in Spain are also watching TV less than older demographic groups. A study by Madrid advertising specialist Barlovento Comunicación, also released in October, showed 63.4% of Millennials, defined as 21 to 36 year olds, watching TV daily but 70 minutes per day less than the general population. Viewing increases by year, generally, from 132 minutes for 21 year olds to 183 minutes for 36 year olds. Nineteen of the top 20 programs between January and October were football matches. This is, of course, Spain. The outlier, 16th place, was “La que se avecina,” a rather dark comedy broadcast by Telecinco, which is broadly the favorite channel for Spanish Millennials.

Millennials broadly don’t seem to be big TV sports fans. “Younger consumers are turning off sports in favor of scripted and social video content,” said Ampere Analysis research director Richard Broughton, quoted by Advanced Television (November 11). The London-based media researcher interviewed viewers in Europe and the US over the past year and found far less interest in TV sports among younger Millennials (18 to 24 years) then a decade ago, long before Pokemon Go. Broadcasters and sports rights holders “will be all too aware that failure to engage younger consumers in sport means being trapped in an unsustainable scenario of escalating rights costs against a backdrop of a declining or stagnating audience base.”

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