China and Japan Power Total World Newspaper Circulation Higher, But For The US and The EU The Paid-For Circulation Is Down

Philip M. Stone June 2, 2008

World newspaper circulation rose by 18 million last year, but when you consider there was a gain of 18.4 million copies in China and India alone it gives a clear picture that paid-for circulation is not doing so well, especially in the US and the EU, according to figures from the annual World Press Trends study released by the World Association of Newspapers (WAN).

The basic story seems to be that Asia continues to grow stronger in paid-for circulation, but is experiencing advertising pressures, whereas in the US the rate of circulation and advertising revenues decline continues, and the number of free newspapers now accounts for fully 23% of European newspaper distribution.

On the advertising front, global revenues increased just 0.86% with all areas except North America showing increases, but since the U.S. is the world’s largest advertising market its 3% decline had a major effect on the global numbers. Unfortunately WAN does not report on profitability.

The five largest markets for paid-for sales are China, 107 million copies sold daily (98.7 million in the 2006 report); India, 99 million (88.1 million); Japan, 68 million (66.9 million), US “nearly” 51 million (52.3 million); and Germany, 20.6 million (20.1 million).

Proving Asia’s strength, 74 of the world’s best selling dailies are published in Asia with 62 in China, Japan, and India. Globally the number of paid-for dailies rose 2.98% to a record 11,926 titles.

Obviously it is Asia’s dominance that puts the global picture in positive terms but that doesn’t stop the WAN spin that all is fine in newspaperland. “Newspaper circulation has been rising or stable in three-quarters of the world’s countries over the past five years and in nearly 80% of countries in the past year,” declared Timothy Balding, WAN CEO.

“And even in places where paid for circulation is declining, notably the United States and some countries in western Europe, newspapers continue to extend their reach through a wide variety of free and niche publications and through their rapidly developing multi-media platforms,” he said. What he didn’t say is that increased readership is not resulting in increased profitability.

But there are important chinks in the Asia armor. While China advertising revenue growth remained a steady 16.13% compared to 16% last year, in Japan the rate of decline in ad revenues worsened, down a significant 4.08% whereas in 2006 the drop was 3.20%, and in India ad revenues actually declined by 1.42% compared to a 23% increase in 2006.  

So, much of the world’s global newspaper advertising increase falls on China’s shoulders with powerhouses Japan and India falling back. Helping also to pick up the slack are the Middle East and Africa (up 13.17%), Latin America (up 10.77%) and central and eastern Europe (up 8.47%) but all of those, of course, from far lower bases.

And there are also big cracks in newspaper readership levels at the top of the chart. The world’s most avid readers remain the Japanese with 624 sales per 1,000 adults, but that is down from the 630.9 recorded in 2006; Norway remains second at 580 (601.2 last year), Colombia jumps into third place at 601.2 (2006 figure unavailable), Finland falls from third to fourth place with 503 (514.7 last year) and Sweden and Singapore are in joint fifth at 449 (Sweden last year at 466.2, Singapore unavailable). By and large, the European and Japanese percentage of adult population reading a newspaper is in decline.

The Turks spend the most time of anyone reading their newspapers – 74 minutes – followed by the Belgians (54 minutes), the Finns and Chinese at 48 minutes.

Free newspapers are certainly making their mark, even if profits are few and far between.  The number of free newspapers in 2007 grew to 312 with a combined circulation of 41.04 million, a 20% increase over 2006.

And whereas Asia is the strongest market for paid-for newspapers, free newspapers account for only 2% of the region’s combined free and paid-for circulation, whereas in Europe free newspapers have 23% and it’s 8% in the US. Globally, free newspapers account for just 7% of global circulation because of their Asian lack of penetration. Five of the six largest free newspaper circulations are in Europe with only Metro in Canada breaking in at fourth place with 990,000 copies. Top in the world, according to WAN, is Leggo in Italy with 1.95 million copies, a gain of some 900,000 in one year (46%).

Newspapers are growing their on-line presence, with the number of sites up 13.77%. And WAN points to US studies that show 81% of online newspaper readers also read a printed newspaper at least once a week, and that overall US newspaper audiences rose 8% through a combination of print and online.

That’s all well and good for readership but newspapers haven’t learned yet how to get comparable advertising rates on the Internet to their print rates, so increased readership doesn’t yet equal increased overall revenues. Many of the medium to large US newspapers this year are reporting dramatic revenue declines in 2008 over 2007 because of big print advertising decreases that Web activities have not made up and that does not bode good tidings for next year’s report.

Some of the main figures as reported by WAN:

• Average readership is estimated to be more than 1.7 billion people each day

• Circulation sales were up 6.72% in South America in 2007 over the previous year, 4.7% in Asia, down 0.49% in Africa, down 1.87% in Europe, down 2.14%in North America and down 4.28% in Australia and Oceania.

• The number of paid-for newspaper titles increased everywhere but North
  America, where it was down 0.56%. The number of newspaper titles was
  up 5.3%in Asia, 4.55% in Australia and Oceania, 3.99% in Africa, 2.54% in South America, and 0.48% in Europe.

• In the European Union, paid daily newspapers saw a 2.37% drop in 2007 and a 5.91% drop since 2003. Combined with free dailies, circulation in the EU rose 2% over one year and 9.61% over five years.

  Newspapers in 11 EU countries increased their total circulation -- Austria 2.12%, Bulgaria 7.20%, Cyprus 2%, Czech Republic 0.18%, Estonia 1.09%, Greece 1.91%, Lithuania 3.55%, Malta 2%, Portugal 1.49%, Romania 3.04%, and Spain 0.29%. Circulation was stable in Luxembourg.

  Losses were: Belgium 0.49%, Denmark 2.13 %, Finland 0.99%, France 0.48%, Germany 2.38%, Hungary 8.27%, Ireland 0.38%, Italy 0.29%, Latvia 26.48%, the Netherlands 2.92%, Poland11.57%, Slovakia 5.25%, Slovenia 6.29%, Sweden 3.49 %, and the United Kingdom 3.46 %.

  Over the five years 2003-2007, circulation rose in 12 countries: Austria
  13.17%, Bulgaria 4.95%, Cyprus 13.33%, Czech Republic 0.30%, Estonia 11.16%, Ireland 3.24%, Lithuania 15.42%, Malta 20%, Portugal 6.67%, Romania 19.40%, Slovakia 1%, and Slovenia 9.33%.

  Circulation declined in: Belgium 4.13%, Denmark 10.14%, Finland 1.83, France 4.83%, Germany 8.78%, Greece 0.62%, Hungary 13.57%, Italy 3.80%, Latvia 34.08%, Luxembourg 0.87%, the Netherlands 11.54%, Poland 3.88%, Spain 0.84%, Sweden 6.49%, and the United Kingdom 10.14%.

  In European countries outside the EU circulation in 2007 increased in Albania, 7.14%, Moldova 21.20%, Montenegro 9.09%, and Ukraine 5.60%. It fell in Croatia 6.2 %, Iceland 4.76%, Macedonia 3.57%, Norway 2.1 %, and Switzerland 2.94%.

  Over five years, circulation increased in Moldova 278.75%, Montenegro 33.33%, and Ukraine 481%. It declined in Albania 1.32%, Iceland 43.66%, Macedonia 10, Norway 9.31%, and Switzerland 12.26%.

• The number of paid-for newspaper titles in the EU climbed 0.41% in 2007, to 1,484, and was up 3.49% over five years. When paid and free titles are combined, the number of titles rose 0.69% over one year and 8.53% over five years.

• The circulation of US dailies fell 3.03% in 2007 and 8.05% over five years. Most of the decline came from PMs, which saw a year-on-year circulation decline of 10.08%, compared with only 1.97% for AMs. Over the past five years, PMs declined 25%, compared with a 5.08% drop for Ams.

• In Japan, newspaper sales fell by 0.96% in 2007. Over five years, sales were down 2.70 %. In China newspaper sales were up 3.84% and 20.69% over one and five years.

• In Latin America, circulation increased in 2007 in Argentina 7.54%, Brazil 11.80%, Chile 3.99%, and Suriname 3.77%. Circulation was stable in Bolivia, Ecuador, Guyana, Uruguay and Venezuela. Sales fell in Colombia 1.25% and Paraguay 3.85%. Over five years, circulations increased in Argentina 22.70%, Bolivia 3.70%, Brazil 24.93%, Chile 13.82%, Colombia 8.97%, Ecuador 15.22%, Guyana 6.67%, and Suriname 22.22%. Circulations declined in Paraguay16.67% and Uruguay 11.18%.

• Indian newspaper sales increased 11.22 % in 2007 and 35.51 % in the five-year period. Elsewhere in Asia, sales were up in Bangladesh 7.69%, Hong Kong 2.50%, Indonesia 2%, Kazakhstan 12.5%, Kyrgyzstan 18.18%, Macau 2.70%, Malaysia 61.83%, Mongolia 3.85%, Nepal 4.62%, Pakistan 0.50%, Singapore 16%, Vietnam 0.71%.  Circulation decreased in Korea 1.03%, the Philippines 0.53% and Taiwan 4.76%. It was stable in Cambodia and Thailand. Over five years, circulation increased in Bangladesh 40%, Cambodia 10%, Indonesia 11.67%, Kazakhstan 181%, Macau 12.43%, Malaysia 93.95%, Mongolia 42.11 %, Nepal 36%, Pakistan 32%, Singapore 16.44%, Thailand 9.77%, Turkmenistan 24.44%, and Vietnam 6.42%. It decreased in Hong Kong 8.89%, Korea 2.69%, and Taiwan 11.11%.

• In the Middle East, where it has been difficult to obtain reliable data, circulation increased in 2007 in Bahrain 3.33%, Iran 3.61%, Jordan 12.50%, Kuwait 27.91%, Oman 17%, Palestinian Authority 12.50% and Saudi Arabia 0.21%. It was stable in Israel, Lebanon and Syria.

• Sales in Australia decreased 5.35% in 2007. while New Zealand sales declined 1.39% year-on-year.

• In Africa, sales were up in 2007 in Algeria 4.17%, Benin 4.17%, Cameroon 4.29%, The Gambia 33.33%, Ivory Coast 2.56 , Kenya 45.45%, Liberia 10%, Libya 42.86%, Madagascar 4.76%, Morocco 10 %, Namibia 10 %, Senegal 2.50%, Somalia 5%, and South Africa 2.70%. Sales declined in 2007 in Burkina Faso 3.03%, Nigeria 37.80%, Reunion 1.37%, and 8% in Zimbabwe.

• Global newspaper advertising revenues have increased for five straight years and were up 0.86% in 2007. It has increased 12.84% over the five-year period. Newspapers share of the world ad market in 2007 fell slightly to 27.5% from 28.7% a year earlier. Newspapers remain the world's second largest advertising medium, after television, with more revenue that radio, cinema, outdoor, and the internet combined. When newspapers and magazines are combined, print is the world's largest advertising medium, with a 40% share, compared to 38% for television.

  Newspaper advertising revenues increased in all regions except North America, where it fell 2.77% in 2007. Revenues increased in western Europe 2%, Asia-Pacific 3.31%, Middle East and Africa 13.17%, Latin America 10.77% and central & eastern Europe 5.39%. Between 2003 and 2007, newspaper advertising revenues increased in all regions: North America, 8.1%,  western Europe 10.15%,  Asia Pacific 13.88 , Middle East and Africa 99.3%, Latin America, 55.38%, and central and eastern Europe 8.47%.

• Newspaper advertising revenues in the US, by far the largest newspaper advertising market in the world, decreased by 3% in 2007 but was up 8% over the last five years.

• In Japan, ad expenditures declined in 2007 by 4.0% and were down 8.77% over the past five years. China advertising revenues rose 16.13% last year, and 49.39% over five years.

• Newspaper markets in the European Union saw a 1.51% increase in 2007 newspaper advertising revenues and a 9.91% increase over five years. For 19 of 24 EU countries for which data was available advertising revenue in 2007 rose: Austria 9.07%, Belgium 2.36 %, Denmark 0.67%, Estonia 15.78%, Finland 5.46%, Germany 0.84%, Greece 12.73%, Ireland 9.04%, Italy 1.1%, Latvia 6.20%, Lithuania 8.18%, the Netherlands 2%, Poland 2.5%, Portugal 1.49 %, Romania  20.37%, Slovakia 8%, Slovenia 1.77%, Spain 6 %, and Sweden 4.5%. Newspaper advertising revenue declined in Bulgaria 4.66%, Czech Republic 7.04%, Hungary 0.05 %, and the United Kingdom 1.79 %.

  Over five years, advertising revenues was up in all but three of the 25 countries for which data was available: Austria 34.92%, Belgium 89.97%, Bulgaria 30.71%, the Czech Republic 27.54%, Denmark 27.44%, Estonia 67.91%, Finland 5.46%, France 2.19%, Germany 5.7%, Greece 78.57%, Hungary 19.7%, Ireland 58.85%, Italy 7.56%,  Latvia 44.6%, Lithuania 33.48%, Netherlands 0.63%,  Romania106.82%, Slovakia 43.09%, Spain 26.87%, and Sweden18.95%. Advertising revenues declined over five years in Poland 58.58%, Portugal 1.63% and in the United Kingdom 5.18%.

• In India, newspaper advertising revenues decline 1.42% in 2007 but were up 64.8% over five years.

• Internet advertising revenues not just newspapers online, but all internet advertising was up 32.45 % over one year and 200% over five years. Most of the revenue is generated in the United States, western Europe and in the Asia-Pacific region: North American internet advertising revenue is 20 times greater than the combined revenue generated in central and eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Even within the regions themselves, the distribution of internet advertising revenue is striking. The United Kingdom has nearly 40% of all internet advertising revenues generated in Europe, while Germany has 23% and France has 14%. If the US and European markets were combined, the US would have a 62% share, followed by the United Kingdom with 15% and Germany with 8%. In Europe, internet display advertising revenues now surpass classified revenues while search remains the largest advertising market online.

  Newspaper online revenues are forecast to more than double in the next five years and will account for 12% of total newspaper advertising by 2011.

• A total of 312 free daily newspapers had a combined circulation of 41.04 million daily, a circulation increase of 20% over one year and 173.2% over five years. When free and paid-for circulations are combined, free dailies account for 7% of the total world-wide, 23 % in Europe, 8 % in the US and 2 % in Asia.