Research Methods Adjusted, Little Blood Letting

Michael Hedges July 23, 2015 Follow on Twitter

A necessary tool in the audience measurement kit is sampling. Counting everybody is hardly efficient or even necessary. Collecting the best data from real people requires a reliable count of how many are there. There is no need to drain the entire body of blood when a simple finger prick is sufficient explained opinion research legend Elmo Roper deep in the last century when the science was a little more frightening. Researchers today take great care in where the needle is inserted.

German radio broadcasters breathed a sigh of relief - mostly - after the release of the semi-annual German radio audience estimates. A census adjustment of the survey sample as well as inclusion of mobile phone users in the interview base may have affected results intended to measure how many people tune-in and for how long. Once again, comparisons with previous surveys, essential for in-depth analysis, has been discouraged by measurement manager Arbeitsgemeinschaft Media-Analyse (AG.MA).

The sample for the MA Radio 2015/II survey was adjusted for the official 2011 census, which showed a 1.8% decline in overall population from previous estimates, a drop of nearly 6% among people 40 to 49 years and a 1% increase in those between 50 and 59 years, women comprising more than 51% of the German population as well as an increase in persons with university degrees. Radio’s daily reach across the whole of Germany is 77.4%, against 78.1% in the previous survey, and time spent listening remained 190 minutes.

Public radio channels continue to attract more daily listeners; 37.49 million or 51.9% of the population listening to public channels and 31.34 million or 43.4% to private radio stations. For one reason or another public channels lost more audience by daily reach than their private-sector counterparts. There were notable exceptions.

The NRW network of 45 local radio stations in North Rhine-Westphalia is once again top ranked, on aggregate, with more listeners than other individual brands. Daily reach Monday-Friday is 1.667 million, up 2.1% from the like period one year on. NRW is a program provider and ad seller targeting persons 14 to 49 years. Licensing changes in North Rhine-Westphalia are allowing for the first time stand-alone stations not affiliated with the NRW network.

Sample induced volatility - or something - reduced the daily reach of Antenne Bayern, Germany’s top radio brand for those discounting NRW, by 9.7%, to 1.22 million from 1.351 million year on year. Public broadcaster Bayerischer Rundfunk (BR) had mixed results. Adult-contemporary Bayern 1 was off 4.9% in daily reach, still over a million listeners and holding 6th place among all German channels. Hit music channel Bayern 3, on the other hand, gained 11.5% in daily reach, moving into 7th place from 9th nationally. Arts and culture channel Bayern 2 lost nearly one-third of daily reach year on year. In addition to well-performing legacy regional channels, public and private, Bavaria has several local radio stations including the Münich Energy (NRJ) franchise, Rock Antenne and Radio Arabella pushing reach to 82.1% and average daily time spent listening to 214 minutes.

The pop music channel of public broadcaster Südwestrundfunk - SWR 3 - held 3rd place in the national rankings with but a small loss in daily reach. Baden-Württemberg oldies channel SWR 1 BW and hit music channel SWR 4 BW lost 14.1% and 10.2% daily reach, respectively, while Rheinland-Pfalz SWR 1 RP and SWR 4 RP were less affected, dropping 5.9% and 2.9%, respectively, year on year. Meanwhile, private Stuttgart (Baden-Württemberg) stations Radio Regenbogen and Antenne 1 had a 15.6% and 7.3% daily reach increases, respectively.

With a small daily reach gain, 1Live remained in 4th stop nationally. The Westdeutsche Rundfunk (WDR) channel targets 14 to 39 year olds. Full-service adult channel WDR 2 dropped 8.1% in daily reach year on year, remaining in 5th place nationally. Daily reach for light oldies channel WDR 4 fell 7.6% for 10th place.

Public channel NDR 2, adult-contemporary offering of Norddeutscher Rundfunk, sank 9.8% in daily reach and was kicked to 8th place in the national ranking. MDR 1 Radio Sachsen dropped 19.1% daily reach and Antenne Brandenburg, Potsdam full-service channel of Rundfunk Berlin- Brandenburg (RBB), fell 14.2%. In addition to aforementioned Radio Regenbogen, Radio Hamburg jumped 14.6% in daily reach year on year. Rheinland-Pfalz private station RPR1 lost 24.2% daily reach. (See leading German channels/stations daily reach trend chart here)

The Census 2011 adjustment covered geography - Hamburg and Berlin decreasing in population most, no geographical unit increasing - and all the usual census data. Women are now represented as 51.1% of the population and German households are smaller. People with multiple residences were counted only once.

“The MA Radio is more stable and representative than ever before,” said radio advertising support group Radiozentrale managing director Lutz Kuckuck in a statement. “In times of massive changes in the media market… stability is a valuable commodity. At the same time our marketing partners can expect a lot of innovation.” Online radio will be included in next audience estimates.

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