Commercial Radio Rebounds As Listeners Tune Out Chatter

Michael Hedges November 1, 2010 Follow on Twitter

A robust media market thrives on a responsive audience and good competition. All of it is rather unpredictable. And that’s the good news because audiences seem to like changing their channels.

There are, of course, only two questions when RAJAR (Radio Joint Audience Research) releases another quarterly survey of radio listening; BBC versus commercial radio and the march toward digital platforms. Within the UK’s media sector the two questions appear intertwined. Among listeners, decidedly not.

During the Q3 period – summertime, July through September – radio listening rose overall 2.3% year on year to 90.6% of the UK population over 15 years. Over the last several years listening levels have risen, generally; up a bit and occasionally down a shade. Only twice in the last five years has the quarterly increase been this great. In Q2 (springtime, April through June) 2007 the listening level increase, year-to-year, was also 2.3%. In Q2 2009 it was 2.7%.

In each of these periods of increased radio listening the audience share gap between BBC and commercial radio shrank measurably. Et Voila! There it is again: the total audience share for commercial radio channels rose to 43.4% from 42.4% one year on. The gap fell to 10.9%, lowest since Q2 2007. Those halcyon days before 2005, when the gap was 10% or less, are still a distant memory, so much has changed. (See RAJAR ‘gap’ chart here)

Aggregate audience share for UK national commercial channels rose to 11.2% from 10.9% one year on. Local commercial radio channels boosted their aggregate audience share to 32.2% from 31.6% year on year. It’s an improvement for commercial radio operators, for sure. (See national audience share and sector chart here)

Top ranked in the national survey, as usual, is BBC Radio 2. With high-profile personalities, adult contemporary music and a fair amount of news Radio 2 keeps its top spot by being a reliable companion. It’s Q3 2010 audience share, however, dropped to 15.6% from 15.9% year on year. In Q1 2010 Radio 2 reached a record 17.2% market share, just as long established morning host Terry Wogan ceded his seat to the slightly younger and also well-known presenter Chris Evans. The Radio 2 breakfast (morning) show is only slightly lower in weekly reach year on year.

News and talk channel BBC Radio 4 placed 2nd, again. It’s audience share fell to 11.8% from 12.4% year on year, lowest since Q3 2008. In the London market, Radio 4 plunged to 13.9% audience share from 16.2% year on year. At the same time Magic 105.4 and Heart 106.2 – both more music, less talk stations – gained significantly. (See London audience share chart here)

Falling further, yet still number three nationally, is BBC Radio 1, the hit music channel filled with high velocity talent. The Q3 2010 audience share is 9.1%, down from 9.9% one year on. Radio 1’s audience share has been dwindling since Q1/Q2 2009. Breakfast show host Chris Moyles has become a lightening rod for criticism, not the least for his ill-timed (September, during the Q3 RAJAR survey period) and well-publicized rant about, well, everything. Moyles weekly reach in Q3 2010 is up year on year.

Fourth place in the national survey is Heart, the mostly music adult contemporary network of 18 stations. Two years ago owner Global Radio began consolidating the brand, which posted 5.9% audience share, no change year on year.

The BBC’s national sports and talk channel Five Live ranks 5th, dropping to 4.7% audience share from 4.9% year on year. By contrast, national commercial channel TalkSport posted 2.1% audience share, ranking 10th, up from 1.9%.

Classic FM (Global Radio) continues its slow slide, now 3.5% audience share, down from 3.7% year on year. One of three ‘real’ national commercial channels, Classic FM has been a cash-cow for Global Radio and all its previous owners. But, nearly two decades on, the cache of classical music excerpts as background station has a tough time attracting attention.         

Absolute Radio, formerly Virgin Radio and the other national commercial radio channel, bumped up to 1.2% audience share from 1.1% year on year. But its story is bigger than its national audience share. Absolute Radio has a significant digital footprint, claiming more than half its audience tune-in via DAB, set-top boxes and the internet. The station is an avid promoter for its rock music format, particularly for the London market where it has an FM frequency. Indeed, its audience share in London rose to 3.2% from 2.6% year on year. Absolute Radio also produces four sister DAB channels.

In the national survey most digital-only channels fared poorly, at best treading water. The notable exceptions were BBC’s 6Music and, to a lesser extent, BBC7.  RAJAR released figures on digital platform listening, showing slight increases mostly from the internet and set-top boxes. Nearly one-third of 15 to 24 year olds say they’ve listened to radio channels via the mobile phone. The DAB platform appears to have hit its peak.

Whether or not listening shares on the DAB platform will reach the government suggested 50% nationally by 2015 to trigger FM shutdown has brought out the long knives. The big commercial operators have backed away from new channel development and the BBC, under threat from the new Conservative-Murdoch coalition government, is shrinking itself to avoid being flattened. The audience share losses for the main BBC radio channels may deflect further slashing.

The 6Music channel, alternative music presented by real people, was on the hit list but spared by popular outrage. That 6Music maintained its 1.0% national market share over two consecutive survey periods qualifies as a major win for the DAB platform. After more than a decade of digital radio, it is more important now to show listeners tuning in to channels than households with a particular device.

UK commercial operators can bask in the warmth of more people tuning in and many of them tuning in to their stations. Following the consolidated national branding of Magic and Heart, Smooth Radio (Guardian Media Group) is making the same transition to quasi-national channel. There is the appearance of talk fatigue after more than a year of lots to talk about in the UK. In Q3 2009, almost all speech-based radio channels posted huge audience shares. UK listeners seem to be taking a break and switching on the music.

See also in ftmKnowledge

Digital Radio - Possibilities and Probabilities

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Europe’s Radio – Northern Europe

Northern Europe’s radio has a very digital sound. And change is in the air. Economic challenges abound for both public and commercial broadcasters. The ftm Knowledge file reports on Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and the UK. 72 pages PDF (December 2009)

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The BBC

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