Scaring Them Away Does Just That

Michael Hedges May 22, 2015 Follow on Twitter

Economic theory offers that consumers are, after all, quite rational. Absorbing information they deem necessary choices are made. That information comes from a lot of sources or, most often, just a few. Restricting choices doesn’t necessarily nudge them along, disruptive opportunities quickly appear.

Radio listening in the UK is in recession, should rules of economics be applied to audience estimates. Total weekly reach has dropped in four consecutive quarters, according to first quarter RAJAR / Ipsos Mori data released this week. For the second straight quarter national reach share has fallen below 90% of the UK population.

Of the remaining great quantity of listeners remaining the BBC’s aggregate national audience share fell year on year to 54.4%, from 54.9%. BBC national channels rose, on aggregate, to 46.9% from 46.6%. BBC local channels, taken altogether, dropped to 7.6% audience share from 8.3%. Aggregate audience share for commercial channels rose to 42.8% from 42.0% largely on gains from national channels, up to 14.2% from 12.3%. The aggregate audience share of local and regional commercial station dropped to 28.6%, lowest in more than ten years.

The greatest motion year on year was among the top ten channels, national rankings shifting somewhat. BBC Radio 2 solidified its top ranking nationally with 18.2% audience share, up from 17.9% and the highest in more than ten years. News and talk channel BBC Radio 4 rose to 12.8% audience share, holding 2nd place, from 12.2% one year on. Further down the list, brand extension and all-digital BBC 4 Extra bumped up to 1.2% audience share, highest ever. BBC 4 Extra offers archive comedy and drama shows plus new creations. At the end of last year, not part of latest audience survey, the channel broadcast, indicative of its direction, the internationally noted Chicago Public Radio podcast series Serial over ten consecutive days.

Youth-targeted BBC Radio 1, becoming more youth-targeted, fell to 4th place nationally with 6.4% audience share from 6.7% year on year and lowest in more than ten years. Morning (breakfast) show host Nick Grimshaw lost nearly a million listeners. All part of the plan, said Controller Ben Cooper.

“Grimmy is doing what I've asked of him by keeping his young audience happy and scaring off the over-30’s,” said Mr. Cooper, quoted by the Independent (May 21). Long-time Radio 1 evening DJ Zane Lowe and four Radio 1 producers exited for Los Angeles in March and April to work on Apple’s forthcoming streaming audio service. “A huge disruptive monster is coming down the hill,” said Radio 1 music director George Ergatoudis to an LA radio conference in April.

Sports channel BBC Five Live dropped to 6th place, 3.7% audience share from 4.1% year on year. Digital channel 6Music was unchanged year on year, culture channel BBC 3 and digital channel 1 Extra down a slice, BBC Asia and Five Extra up a slice. On aggregate BBC channels lost 5.4% weekly reach among 15 to 45 year olds, gaining 1.9% among the older generations.

Happy, happy were the folks at Global Radio. The Heart franchise, reset last year, is in 3rd place nationally with 6.7% audience share from 6.2% year on year. And the Smooth background music franchise moved to 4th ranking, audience share rising to 3.9% from 3.2%, the biggest jump for any radio channel. The Capital franchise, however, dropped to 7th place, tied with national channel Classic FM.

Bauer Media, the other major commercial radio operator, also had happiness. It’s Absolute Radio franchise, six channels on a variety of platforms, placed 9th on aggregate with 2.9% audience share, up from 2.5% one year on. . The Kiss franchise ranked 10th with 2.8% audience share, up from 2.5%. The Magic franchise, recently adding national distribution via the DAB digital platform, dropped to 1.8% audience share in the national survey from 2.1%.

Results in the London survey area were a bit of the same and a bit not. BBC Radio 4 topped the list with 17.0% audience share from 15.4% one year on, highest in two years. BBC Radio 2 placed 2nd with 12.4% audience share, up from 11.8%. BBC Radio 1 dropped to 9th in London from 7th year on year. Five Live and local station BBC London were up a bit, Radio 3 down a bit.

As total weekly reach for UK radio continues on its downward trajectory, effects could be irreversible, sort of like austerity policies. Listener economics, if you will, is ruled by more than simple supply and demand. Digital platforms are increasingly part of the supply chain, 38.0% of the commercial radio audience share and 40.7% of the BBC’s. Younger listeners - the demand side - are deserting anyway. Left to the rest is stagnation… and Spotify.

See also in ftmKnowledge

Europe’s Radio – Northern Europe

Northern Europe’s radio has a very digital sound. And change is in the air. Economic challenges abound for both public and commercial broadcasters. The ftm Knowledge file reports on Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and the UK. 144 pages PDF includes Resources (November 2012)

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Digital Radio - Possibilities and Probabilities

Digital radio has many platforms. From broadcast platforms to internet radio and rapidly emerging smartphone platforms, listeners and broadcasters have choices galore and decisions to make. Some regulators have made up their minds, others not, some hedging their bets. This ftm Knowledge file details the possibilities for digital broadcasting and the probabilities for success. Includes Resources 149 pages PDF (August 2012)

Order here