You’ve got a friend in statistics

Michael Hedges October 20, 2008

Summer ratings are refreshing, more so in hindsight. Little is similar with other seasons. We turn the radio on a bit later, maybe for a bit more fun, a little more energy, more diversion. The numbers tell all.

Audience survey results, in the broadest sense, answer questions. To be sure, the Q3 RAJAR data answered several questions and posed a few more. Perhaps the biggest question by order of magnitude has been whether or not the UK commercial radio sector has weathered the storm of mergers, digital media and withering BBC competition.

The market share for national commercial channels dropped to 11% from 11.6% year on year. Frequency shuffling boosted the Heart national network to a 5.4% market share from 2.3% in Q3 2007 and the Galaxy network to 2.5% market from 1.8%. The gains give comfort to the argument that it’s distribution that matters. The XFM network, now with fewer frequencies, dropped.

The Smooth Radio network rose to a 2.4% market share from 1.8% one year on and has for four quarters maintained a share nationally at 2% or higher.

Classic FM, one of three true national commercial channels, dove to a 3.8% market share from 4.3% year on year, continuing what appears to be a declining trend. But, one survey does not make a trend. Wait; this is the third consecutive year-to-year decline by quarter. TalkSport was up a pinch and Virgin Radio down a pinch. It’s the final RAJAR survey for a national channel called Virgin Radio, the name change to Absolute Radio in place since September.

Name changes for radio brands are risky, expensive and require several years under the best conditions to mean anything to listeners. V & S Vin & Spirit owners and distributors of the Absolut vodka brand filed suit (October 9), asking the courts to force the new Absolute Radio, owned by the Times of India, to change that name…again. Richard Branson’s Virgin Media owns – and aggressively protects – the Virgin brand name and not re-license usage to the new owner. V & S aggressively protects the Absolut name and trademarks. Plus, V & S does not want the name Absolute Radio causing a regulatory nightmare. Expect another name change. Consulting trademark counsel might have saved unnecessary cost and time, but I digress. 

BBC Radio’s national market share grew to 54.9% over 54.4% year on year, gains resting squarely on the national radio services. Noted by all, however, was the quarter to quarter decline in BBC Radio’s market share from 55.5% in Q2 and 56.8% in Q1. THE GAP between the aggregated market share of BBC Radio and commercial radio rose, year on year, to 11.8% from 11.1%.

BBC Radio 2 and Radio 4 were up pinches, 16% from 15.8% and 11.5% from 11.2%, respectively year on year. Radio 1 took a major hit, dropping to 9.8% from 10.6% year on year. The 10.6% market share in Q3 2007, which was repeated in Q1 2008, was the channels’ highest in five years. Sports talk channel Five Live rose to 4.6% over 4.2% year on year. BBC Asia and BBC World Service lost nothing and gained nothing. Down the list, into DAB territory, BBC 6Music, BBC7, FiveExtra and 1Xtra gained pinches. And those pinches add up. Commercial digital channels gained pinches, too.

Back to THE GAP: nothing happy in this trend, neither for the commercial broadcasters nor the BBC. Arguably the continued disparity between public and commercial radio market share is worse news for the BBC. The rune fires will continue to glow brightly as commercial broadcasters continue to dance the old dance, appealing to the regulatory gods for safety. It is the season for intervention. The BBC Radio programmers like being winners but there’s a price to be paid when cheering for the underdogs rises.

The Q3 survey period is unique, reflecting summer-time and a bit of back-to-school listening. Historically – at least the last six years – the average aggregated national market share for commercial radio is highest in the Q3 period and BBC Radio lowest. It’s the winter period Q1 when BBC Radio has reached its highest market shares.

averages per quarter 2003-2008, except Q4 2003-2007, source: RAJAR, national UK radio listening

Next question: digital radio.