UK radio in a mellow mood

Michael Hedges July 28, 2008

The UK commercial radio market got a boost from the latest RAJAR survey, slightly improving its audience share against the relentless onslaught of BBC radio channels. Talk channels and stations with lots of chatter lost audience, generally, to background music stations. Perhaps is just a mood swing.

Actually, the BBC radio channels improved their aggregate market share to 55.5% from 54.3%, year on year. National BBC channels, added together, account for a 46% market share, up from 44.5% in Q2 2007.  Local BBC channels fell to 9.6% from 9.8% one year on. Commercial channels and stations lost market share to 42.4% from 43.5% year on year. National commercial channels were steady at 11.2% market share leaving the loss to local stations, falling to 31.2% market share from 32.3% in Q2 2007. But within UK media circles the twitter was about quarter to quarter comparisons, truly apples and oranges, with the three prominent BBC national channels losing market share; commercial stations, in aggregate, benefiting. Total listening – gross reach – in the UK fell 1.1% year on year to 45.117 million persons over 15 years of age. 

BBC Radio 2 remains the UK’s top rated national radio channel, increasing market share year on year to 16% from 15.6%. Radio 4 also increased its audience share year on year to 12% from 11.2%. Sports channel Five Live increased to 4.6% from 4.2% market share year on year. Radio 1 dropped to 10% from 10.3% in the national survey. But, twitter twitter, the three major BBC channels lost market share quarter to quarter and Five Live simply maintained. Only arts and classical music channel Radio 3 showed a significant gain, to 1.2% share from 1.1% in Q2 2007 and 0.9% in Q1 2008.

The only discernable winner among commercial channels in the national survey was Guardian Media Group’s Smooth Radio national network, rising to 2.5% market share from 2%. And, too, there were no significant losers among the national commercial channels or networks, year on year or quarter to quarter.

The Gap between commercial and BBC channels increased year on year, to 13.1% from 10.8%. Quarter to quarter The Gap receded from 15.7% in Q1 2008. The trend is, however, the trend. The BBC said, in its post-RAJAR statement, ”We are not concerned.” (Larger graphic here)

Magic 105.4, formerly Emap now Bauer Media owned, leapt to a 7.4% share in the London market, up from a 6.2% one year on, taking a commanding lead among the commercial stations. ‘More music, less talk’ rival Heart, 2nd place among the commercials, fell back to a 5.7% market share from 6.2% in Q2 2007. Capital Radio returned to 3rd place, year on year, among commercial stations with a 4.6% market share, up from 4.1%.

Seven percent share or more for a commercial station in the London market doesn’t rise often. Since 2003 Magic 105.4 has been at a 7% share or above one other survey period, Q1 2006. Heart reached a 7% share or above in Q4 2006 (7.1%), Q1 2005 (7.0%) and Q3 2003. Capital Radio hit 7.9% s market share in Q1 2004, 7.2% in Q3 2004 and 7.0% in Q4 2003.

The combined market share for Heart and Magic has averaged 11.8% over these last 19 quarters, creeping up to 13.1% in the most recent report. Reaching the seven percent level is certainly good news for Bauer Media and for UK commercial radio as a whole since no commercial station reached or exceeded seven percent in the previous six quarters. It’s a good message to the advertising people, except for one small problem.

‘More music, less talk’ stations don’t carry ads very well. And that’s the reason Capital Radio, revenue-wise, continues to punch above its weight.  The best news for commercial radio would be for one station, any station, to pass an 8% market share. The ad people, not to forget the whinging radio critics, would be excited about radio again. If Magic 105.4 gets there first – not out of the question – Heart would need to rethink its format, which would likely stimulate even more interest in the London commercial radio stations if not the UK commercial radio sector as a whole.

But, enough of that. It doesn’t take a PhD in statistics to see, at least in the most recent RAJAR quarterly report, much higher interest among surveyed radio listeners in channels and stations programming a lot of music and lesser amounts of talk. Magic 105.4 took a huge uptick and the Smooth Radio channels and BBC 3 made gains nationally, year on year. Quarter to quarter, more anecdote than trend, the big chatty breakfast shows – Wogan on Radio 2, Moyles on Radio 1 and the Capital Gang – posted loses. LBC 97.3’s ‘Biggest Conversation’ posted its biggest quarter to quarter loss.

An interesting survey, done more than a decade ago, showed correlation between consumer confidence ratings and easy listening / background music audience shares. In the ‘good times’ listeners gravitate toward more animated radio stations. When in times of stress, they just don’t like a lot of chatter.