In Measurement You Can Never Be Certain

Michael Hedges May 25, 2011 Follow on Twitter

Media measurement blends science, art and a little faith. Methods are strict, typically, following the usually and customary blessings of social scientists and statisticians. Computing power and the web has brought mountains of data to all wanting to know who hears, sees and, now, clicks. The more you look at it, the more it moves around.

Acclaimed physicist Werner Heisenberg didn’t know or, likely, care that his Uncertainty Principle would leap from quantum mechanics to market research. It’s impossible, he theorized, to know with any certainty the exact location or velocity of a particle because the very act of watching changes it. He published this in 1927, when radio was new, television coming soon and advertisers wondered aloud if half the money they spent was wasted.

Through the first two generations of audience measurement researchers – and their clients – were reasonably confident that surveys and mathematical modeling yielded a reasonably accurate snap-shot of listeners and viewers behavior. All recognized the drawbacks. Sample theory grew along with “the art of asking questions.”

The internet spoiled all of that. Almost immediately it was possible to “know” much more about who looked at a web page. Between cookies and HTLM tags this information was collected and sent on to researchers, ad servers and other nosy neighbors. Among other benefits, ads and other messages could be specific for certain website visitors based on IP address and, eventually, browsing history. The advertising people were thrilled, certainly others as well, and began asking for the same information about media usage on every platform.

Companies emerged to collect and collate this mass of new data, ComScore being one, and standards in practice developed. Traffic, visits and page views were defined. The advertising people grew attached to click-through rates. And they began sending more money to the internet in part because they believed they knew more about who they were reaching. Media unable to provide this level of detail suffered.

The widespread use of cookies – little bits of code loaded onto PCs and laptops - to gather information useful for a wide variety of purposes is now quite controversial. Who, ask privacy advocates, is in control? The European Commission’s ePrivacy rules are set to take effect (May 26), requiring websites to provide opt-in controls over some cookie placement. Only about one in four Europeans regularly delete cookies from their personal devices, noted ComScore Germany Vice President Wolf Allisat at the Next11 conference in Berlin (May 17).

The European Commission’s (EC) Privacy and Electronic Communications Directive (2002), as amended (2009), obliges EU Member States to codify national law to require websites that collect tracking information unrelated to the specific purpose of the website with cookies to give users an immediate choice. Obviously, the targets are ad servers using cookies for ad placement and tracking. EU Member States have until May 26th to comply. Only two have, Denmark and Estonia, and a few others are almost ready. Not to worry, it usually takes the EC a few weeks to warm up those infringement proceedings.

Audience and marketing research clients – largely but not exclusively advertising people – have a new joy in data collection: location. Not only do they want to know who hears or sees ads but their whereabouts. This, too, is made possible by technology already available in mobile devices.

Adobe, major supplier of website systems and components, recently upgraded its Flash Player 10.3 to include privacy controls for users. Flash cookies are a little different, stored in third-party apps and plug-ins rather than on a web browser. Oh, dear, this is complicated. The new Adobe Flash Player 10.3 upgrade also includes a tool to measure video content usage and distribution.

Measuring video content accessed on PCs, laptops, mobile devices and anything other than the rather last century TV set in the living room is gaining traction. Nielsen, another industry biggie, has its VideoCensus tool to put demographics and locations next to non-traditional video usage. Nearly 27 million folks in the UK watched video content on PCs or laptops from home or work in April, Nielsen reported. “To support the video-on-demand advertising model, the industry needs reliable, people-centric measurement, especially with demographics to line up with traditional TV,” said UK Online Measurement (UKOM) General Manager James Smythe in a statement, quoted by Marketing Week (May 18). UKOM has accredited the VideoCensus tool.

Web measurement data might not be as valuable as once thought because of deleted cookies. MediaMind Technologies, a US-based digital advertising provider, reports that unique users might be overestimated by “two to three fold.” They, too, have a new tool. “Advertisers who use traditional audience measurement metrics,” said MediaMind CEO Gal Trifon in a statement,  “can never be certain of the number of users who were exposed to their marketing message.”

Werner Heisenberg deserves a lot of credit.

See also in ftmKnowledge

Media Measurement - Changing Times

The times are changing and so is media measurement. Big research companies are changing and growing. And governments are putting in their hands. Includes: mobile and internet metrics, electronic measurement systems and device descriptions, PPM (US) debate. 73 pages PDF (January 2009)

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